By JEANNINE AVERSA, AP Economics Writer job

WASHINGTON – The recession is killing jobs at an alarming pace, with tens of thousands of new layoffs announced Monday by some of the biggest names in American business — Pfizer, Caterpillar and Home Depot.

More pink slips, pay freezes and other hits are expected to slam workers in the months ahead as companies desperately look for ways to survive.

“We’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg — the big firms,” said Rebecca Braeu, economist at John Hancock Financial Services. “There’s certainly other firms beneath them that will lay off workers as quickly or even quicker.”

Looking ahead, economists predicted a net loss of at least 2 million jobs — possibly more — this year even if President Barack Obama’s $825 billion package of increased government spending and tax cuts is enacted. Last year, the economy lost a net 2.6 million jobs, the most since 1945, though the labor force has grown significantly since then.

The unemployment rate, now at a 16-year high of 7.2 percent, could hit 10 percent or higher later this year or early next year, under some analysts’ projections.

Obama called on Congress Monday to speedily enact his recovery plan, warning that the nation can’t afford “distractions” or “delays.”

With the recession expected to drag on through much of this year, more damage will be inflicted on both companies and workers.

The mounting toll was visible Monday as roughly 40,000 more U.S. workers got the grim news.

Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer Inc., which is buying rival drugmaker Wyeth in a $68 billion deal, and Sprint Nextel Corp., the country’s third-largest wireless provider, said they each will slash 8,000 jobs.

Home Depot Inc., the biggest home improvement retailer in the U.S., will get rid of 7,000 jobs, and General Motors Corp. said it will cut 2,000 jobs at plants in Michigan and Ohio because of slow sales.

“We are seeing no improvement in labor market conditions,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets Economics. “This year could be as bad as last year in terms of layoffs.”

In response to deteriorating business conditions, Caterpillar Inc., the world’s largest maker of mining and construction equipment, disclosed nearly 20,000 job cuts, most of which already have been made. They include 5,000 new layoffs of white collar workers, which will occur globally by the end of March.

Earlier actions included the elimination of 2,500 Caterpillar workers through a buyout offer announced in December, the termination of about 8,000 contract and temp agency workers, and the reduction of 4,000 full-time factory workers through firings and buyouts.

Texas Instruments Inc., which makes chips for cell phones and other gadgets, will cut 3,400 jobs due to slumping demand. The Dallas-based company said Monday it will slash 12 percent of its work force — 1,800 jobs through layoffs and another 1,600 through voluntary retirements and departures. And Brooks Automation Inc. said it plans to get rid of 350 jobs, or 20 percent of its work force. It will be the second round of cuts for Brooks, which makes software and equipment for chip manufacturers.

Oilfield services provider Halliburton Co. said it will eliminate jobs in markets particularly hard hit by the recession, though it didn’t provide details. Its larger rival Schlumberger Ltd. said last week it will cut up to 5,000 jobs worldwide in the first half of 2009 and consider further reductions this spring.

The flurry of layoffs comes on the heels of similar action by big-name companies just last week.

Microsoft Corp. said it will slash up to 5,000 jobs over the next 18 months. Intel Corp. said it will cut up to 6,000 manufacturing jobs. And United Airlines parent UAL Corp. said it would get rid of 1,000 jobs, on top of 1,500 axed late last year.

And there’s no end in sight. In a survey by the National Association for Business Economics, 39 percent of forecasters predicted job reductions through attrition or “significant” layoffs over the next six months, up from 32 percent in the previous survey in October. Around 45 percent in the current survey anticipated no change in hiring plans. About 17 percent thought hiring would increase.

A new report by the placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas found that companies are often turning to a creative combination of measures to cut costs — beyond layoffs. Those measures include pay freezes or reductions, forced vacations, travel cutbacks and the elimination of year-end bonuses.

“Many companies cannot cut their payrolls as deeply as they have in previous downturns, simply because they did not do as much hiring during the most recent expansion,” said John Challenger, president of the firm. “As a result, they are forced to find alternative ways to keep costs down.”

Not all the economic news was as grim Monday. Sales of previously owned homes and a separate barometer of economic activity each logged unexpected gains in December. But economists didn’t view them as signs of improvement.

“Keep the party hats in boxes and the Champagne in the cellar,” said Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group. “It’s one month’s set of data and they tell us little about the future.”

Economists said the uptick in home sales was due to sinking prices spurring buyers. In the other report, a government-influenced balloon in the nation’s money supply largely affected the outcome.

Wall Street closed moderately higher. The Dow Jones industrials rose 38.47,or 0.48 percent, to 8,116.03, after briefly moving into negative territory.

The National Association of Realtors said sales of existing homes rose 6.5 percent to an annual rate of 4.74 million last month. Buyers took advantage of dramatically lower prices, especially in distressed states like California, Florida and Nevada, where foreclosures are soaring.

The nationwide median sales price sank to $175,400, down 15.3 percent from a year ago. That marked the biggest annual drop on records going back to 1968. The median is the middle point, where half the homes sell for more and half for less.

For all of last year, existing-home sales totaled 4.9 million, down more than 13 percent from the previous year, and the lowest since 1997.

Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s monthly forecast of economic activity rose 0.3 percent in December. But that pickup was influenced mainly by federal efforts to ease the credit crisis, which caused the supply of money to expand. If the jump in the money supply were excluded, the board’s index would have dropped sharply, economists said.

The national economy, meanwhile, is continuing to backslide.

Many analysts predict the economy will have contracted at a pace of 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter when the government releases that report Friday. If they are correct, that would mark the worst performance since a 6.4 percent drop in the first quarter of 1982. The economy is still contracting now — at a pace of around 4 percent, according to some projections.

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AP Business Writers Ellen Simon and Alan Zibel contributed to this report.

Visit www.TheSalaryGuard to find out how to protect yourself before you are facing a layoff or job loss.
]]> http://salaryguard.wordpress.com/2009/01/26/job-killing-recession-racks-up-more-layoff-victims/feed/ 0 salaryguard http://salaryguard.wordpress.com/2008/12/19/sc-jobless-rate-still-rising-hits-84-percent/ http://salaryguard.wordpress.com/2008/12/19/sc-jobless-rate-still-rising-hits-84-percent/#comments Sat, 20 Dec 2008 03:28:34 +0000 salaryguard http://salaryguard.wordpress.com/?p=85 ]]> By PAGE IVEY
Associated Press Writer

Published: December 19, 2008

COLUMBIA, S.C. (AP) – An additional 11,500 people in South Carolina joined the ranks of the unemployed last month, driving the state’s jobless rate to 8.4 percent.

State unemployment officials said Friday that November’s rate was up from a revised 7.9 percent rate in October and compares with a national rate of 6.7 percent. Nearly 183,000 people are unemployed in South Carolina.

Retailers added just 1,300 jobs last month, well below the typical holiday hiring level, Halley said in a news release Friday.

The state’s top economic advisers have predicted that unemployment could reach an unprecedented 14 percent next year.

Retired Clemson University economist Bruce Yandle, who has advised the South Carolina Board of Economic Advisors for decades, said Friday his estimates show the jobless rate peaking around 12 percent next year.

“Fourteen percent. That is a large number. I don’t see it, but I’m not going to say it’s not going to happen,“ Yandle said, adding that many companies in the state closely tied to the auto industry have announced layoffs that are yet to show up in the jobless count.

The high number of people seeking unemployment benefits has depleted the fund the state uses to make those payments. Unemployment officials have said they will need to borrow $147 million from the federal government to make payments in the first three months of the year.

Unemployment rates in November rose in five of the Pee Dee counties.

Marion County had the second highest rate in the state with 17.1 percent which was 1.3 percent above October’s rate of 15.8 percent.

Marlboro County was fifth in the state at 14.2 but it was down from Ocotober’s 15.3 percent. Williamsburg County was eighth with a rate of 12.7 percent up from 11.4 percent in October.

Dillon County was 11th with a rate of 12 percent up from 11.9 in October. Chesterfield was 16th with a rate 11.3 percent up from 10.9 percent in October. Darlington County was 20th with a rate of 10.3 percent up from 9.4 percent in October.

Florence County was 33rd with a rate of 8.1 percent which was the same in October.

Marlboro County’s rate dropped slightly and Florence County’s rate stayed the same.
Along the Grand Strand Horry County was 24th with a rate of 10.2 percent up from 8.4 in October. Georgetown County was 21st with a rate of 10.2 percent up from 8.7 percent in October.

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We are clearly in a serious recession, and more aggressive action is needed to turn things around. The federal government initially underestimated the scale of the mortgage and housing crises and later panicked into an ever-changing series of ad hoc measures that at best dealt with some of the effects of the original crises. But homeowners have now lost $5 trillion, and 12 million families have mortgages in excess of the value of their homes. Therefore the economy will not stabilize until mortgages are adjusted down to the value of homes, with affordable payment schedules, and until new mortgages become available across the home-price spectrum. Till then, the poverty effect of falling house prices and unemployment moving up toward 7% will hold consumer spending back from its former 70% contribution to our economy.

I’m optimistic about the choices that President-elect Obama has made for his economic team, and I’ve got some suggestions for what they should do. Hopefully the new Treasury Secretary, Tim Geithner, will incentivize lenders to restructure mortgages by guaranteeing half of the reduced principal amount and sharing among the government, homeowners, and lenders any subsequent appreciation. Lenders would gain liquidity by selling the Treasury-guaranteed portion of the loan, and government would receive annual insurance premiums to further protect it against loss. That would cost taxpayers nothing now and probably little or nothing in the future.

Addressing unemployment is paramount. Detroit needs government support in order to implement independently verified concessions from all stakeholders – not just labor – which are sufficiently large to permit profitable operations even if auto sales remain as low as 11 million cars per year. A pre-negotiated bankruptcy may be necessary in order to implement the restructuring, but both the industry and the economy are too fragile to withstand the domino effect that a free-fall bankruptcy would have on a car company, its dealers, and its suppliers.

In addition, to avoid reversal of the 242,000 jobs created by state and local governments in the past 12 months, Washington should provide or guarantee funding for sorely needed infrastructure projects that would create immediate construction jobs and meaningful amounts of permanent jobs.

If President Obama promptly and decisively resolves these problems, whether or not he adopts my recommendations, and restores public confidence, he can end the recession by early 2010. If not, the economy will languish for a long time. Given the economic uncertainty, investors who are too worried to buy equities might consider tax-exempt bonds with yields around 6%, equivalent to almost 10% before federal, state, and local taxes. Investors who want to hedge the risk that federal deficits might lead to longer-term inflation and drive up interest rates, causing these bonds to decline, might buy some TIPS, or Treasury inflation-protected securities, as well. TIPS are U.S. Treasury bonds whose principal amount varies with consumer price indexes to provide holders with a rate of return in constant dollars. TIPS prices currently imply near-term deflation, and that means that they would appreciate in value if inflation comes back.

At my firm, we’ve been starting to invest in some distressed financial companies. That seems as if it will work out reasonably well, because they’re very, very cheap. The financial services sector is kind of where the problems started, and it’s probably going to need to be fixed in order for the problems to be resolved. We see opportunities there.
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And when should you buy? In or near what I call the Time of Deepest Gloom, if you can spot it.
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The commodities guru predicted two years ago that the credit bubble would devastate Wall Street.We are in a period of forced liquidation, which has happened only eight or nine times in the past 150 years. The fact that it’s historic doesn’t make it any more fun, of course. But it is a pretty interesting time when there is forced selling of everything with no regard for facts or fundamentals at all. Historically, the way you make money in times like these is that you find things where the fundamentals are unimpaired. The fundamentals of GM are impaired. The fundamentals of Citigroup are impaired.

Virtually the only asset class I know where the fundamentals are not impaired – in fact, where they are actually improving – is commodities. Farmers cannot get a loan to buy fertilizer right now. Nobody’s going to get a loan to open a zinc or a lead mine. Meanwhile, every day the supply of commodities shrinks more and more. Nobody can invest in productive capacity, even if he wants to. You’re going to see gigantic shortages developing over the next few years. The inventories of food worldwide are already at the lowest levels they’ve been in 50 years. This may turn into the Great Depression II. But if and when we come out of this, commodities are going to lead the way, just as they did in the 1970s when everything was a disaster and commodities went through the roof.

What I’ve been buying recently is agricultural commodities. I’ve also been buying more Chinese stocks. And I’m buying stocks in Taiwan for the first time in my life. It looks as if there’s finally going to be peace in Taiwan after 60 years, and Taiwanese companies are going to benefit from the long-term growth of China.

I have covered most of my short positions in U.S. stocks, and I’m now selling long-term U.S. government bonds short. That’s the last bubble I can find in the U.S. I cannot imagine why anybody would give money to the U.S. government for 30 years for less than a 4% yield. I certainly wouldn’t. There are going to be gigantic amounts of bonds coming to the market, and inflation will be coming back.

In my view, U.S. stocks are still not attractive. Historically, you buy stocks when they’re yielding 6% and selling at eight times earnings. You sell them when they’re at 22 times earnings and yielding 2%. Right now U.S. stocks are down a lot, but they’re still very expensive by that historical valuation method. The U.S. market is yielding 3% today. For stocks to go to a 6% yield without big dividend increases, the Dow will need to go below 4000. I’m not saying it will fall that far, but it could very well happen. And if it gets that low and I’m still solvent, I hope I’m smart enough to buy a lot. The key in times like these is to stay solvent so you can load up when opportunity comes.
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My 87-year-old mother is a native Kansan who grew up in the throes of the Great Depression and the Dust Bowl. She is a classic “buy and hold” investor who would make Warren Buffett proud. Her investment returns always exceeded those of my father, to his eternal consternation. He actively traded his stocks and produced decent returns, but nothing like those my mother achieved by simply buying stocks of companies she understood and liked, and then holding onto them.

So I have become a strong advocate of the “basics” when it comes to investing: Do your homework, invest in securities you understand, and then hold on. As a government policymaker, I advocate informed investment decisions – not only to protect investors from losses but also because the efficient functioning of our capital markets relies on investors’ doing their homework.

The private-label mortgage-backed securitization markets are a prime example. Trillions of dollars of investor money funded millions of mortgages that borrowers had little chance of repaying. Investors relied heavily on ratings agencies, which in turn relied too heavily on mathematical models instead of analyzing the underlying loans. To be sure, borrowers, brokers, lenders, securitizers, as well as state and federal regulators, all bear responsibility for the widespread deterioration in lending standards. But the problem was compounded by the fact that those ultimately holding the risk – the investors – did not look behind their investments at the quality of the mortgages themselves. If they had, they would have seen high loan-to-value ratios, little income documentation, burdensome fees, and steep payment resets. They would have seen mortgages unaffordable from the beginning, originated based on the assumption that home prices would continue to rise and borrowers would refinance. Of course, we now know that as home prices began to depreciate, borrowers were unable to refinance, leading to massive foreclosures and further price declines. This self-reinforcing downward spiral is at the core of the economic problems we face today.

We will dig out of this. And when we do, I hope for a back-to-basics society – where banks and other lending institutions promote real growth and long-term value for the economy, and where American families have rediscovered the peace of mind of financial security achieved through saving and investing wisely. We need to return to the culture of thrift that my mother and her generation learned the hard way through years of hardship and deprivation. Those are lessons learned that the current crisis is teaching us again.
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The Yale professor and co-founder of MacroMarkets called both the dot-com and housing bubbles.

We don’t currently have anywhere near the level of unemployment that we had in the 1930s, but otherwise there are many similarities between today’s environment and the Great Depression, with things happening today that we haven’t seen since then. First of all, there’s the magnitude of the stock market’s move up and down. The real (inflation-corrected) value of the S&P 500 nearly tripled from 1995 to 2000, and by November 2008 was down nearly 60% from its 2000 peak. The only other comparable event was the one in the 1920s where real stock prices more than tripled from 1924 to 1929 and then fell 80% from 1929 to 1932. Second, we’ve had the biggest housing bust since the Depression. Third, we’ve seen 0% interest rates. We’ve actually seen briefly negative short-term interest rates. That hasn’t happened since 1941. There was a period from 1938 to 1941 when we were bouncing around at zero and sometimes negative, but that hasn’t happened since.

And the list goes on: Our numbers don’t go back as far as the Depression, but consumer confidence is plausibly at the lowest level since then. Volatility of the stock market in terms of percentage changes day-to-day is the highest since the Depression. In October 2008 we saw the biggest drop in consumer prices in one month since April 1938. Another thing is that it’s a worldwide event, as it was in the Depression.

I’m optimistic that we’ll do better this time, but I’m worried that we’re vulnerable. One of the lessons from the Depression is that things can smolder for a long time. What I’m worried about right now is that our confidence has been hurt, and that’s difficult to restore. No matter what we do, we’re trying to deal with a psychological phenomenon. So the Fed can cut interest rates and purchase asset-backed securities, but that only works in really restoring full prosperity if people believe that we’re back again. That’s a little hard to manage.

In terms of the stock market, the price/earnings ratio is no longer high. I use a P/E ratio in which the price is divided by ten-year average earnings. It’s a really conservative way of looking at it. That P/E ratio got up to 44 in the year 2000, which was a record high. Recently it was down to less than 13, which is below the average of around 15. But after the stock market crash of 1929, the price/earnings ratio got down to about six, which is less than half of where it is now. So that’s the worry. Some people who are so inclined might go more into the market here because there’s a real chance it will go up a lot. But that’s very risky. It could easily fall by half again.

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9:30 am, EST December 11, 2008

WASHINGTON – New claims for jobless benefits rose more than expected last week, exceeding even gloomy expectations for an economy stuck in a recession that seems to be deepening.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that initial applications for jobless benefits in the week ending Dec. 6 rose to a seasonally adjusted 573,000 from an upwardly revised figure of 515,000 in the previous week. That was far more than the 525,000 claims Wall Street economists expected.

In a fresh example of the layoffs, tool maker Stanley Works said Thursday it plans to cut 2,000 jobs, or about 10 percent of its work force, and close three manufacturing facilities. The New Britain, Conn.-based company cited weakness in its construction and industrial segments and the effect of a stronger dollar for the reductions.

New jobless claims last week reached their highest level since November 1982, though the labor force has grown by about half since then.

The jump is partly due to a rebound in claims from the previous week, which included the Thanksgiving holiday, a Labor Department analyst said. Government offices were open for fewer days that week.

Still, the four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, was a seasonally-adjusted 540,500, the highest since December 1982, when the economy was emerging from a steep recession.

The number of people continuing to claim jobless benefits also jumped much more than expected, increasing by 338,000 to 4.4 million, the Labor Department said. Economists expected a small increase to 4.1 million. The figure for continuing claims lags initial claims by one week.

As a proportion of the work force, the number of people continuing to receive benefits is the highest since August 1992, when the U.S. was recovering from a relatively mild recession. The increase in continuing claims was the largest jump since November 1974, the department said.

Economists consider jobless claims a timely, if volatile, indicator of the health of the labor markets and broader economy. Last year, initial claims were 337,000.

Also Thursday, the U.S. trade deficit rose unexpectedly in October as a spreading global recession dampened sales of U.S. products overseas and the volume of oil imports surged by a record amount, the Commerce Department said.

The trade deficit rose to $57.2 billion in October, from an imbalance of $56.6 billion in September. Analysts had been looking for the deficit to decline to $53.5 billion on lower oil prices.

While oil prices did drop by a record amount, that was offset by a record surge in the volume of oil imports.

The figures come a day after the Treasury Department reported a record budget deficit for November, driven by lower tax revenues and higher spending on programs such as unemployment insurance and food stamps.

In just the first two months of the budget year that started Oct. 1, the budget deficit totaled $401.6 billion, nearly matching the record gap of $455 billion posted for all of last year, the department said Wednesday.

Economists expect the deficit will top $1 trillion in the current budget year, which would be a post-World War II high when measured as a percentage of the economy.

The economy has been hit hard by the ongoing housing slump and financial crisis, which have sharply reduced household wealth as stock prices and home values have declined. Consumers and businesses have dramatically cut back their spending. The National Bureau of Economic Research said this month that the economy fell into a recession in December 2007.

The Labor Department said last week that employers cut a net total of 533,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate reached 6.7 percent, a 15-year high. The rate would have been higher, except that more than 400,000 Americans gave up looking for a new job and weren’t counted in the labor force.

Companies have eliminated a net total of 1.9 million jobs this year, and some economists project the total cuts could reach 3 million by the spring of 2010.

A number of large U.S. employers announced layoffs this week, including Dow Chemical Co., 3M Co., Anheuser-Busch InBev, National Public Radio and the National Football League.

The founder of bond giant Pimco warned of a subprime contagion back in July 2007.

While 2008 will probably be best known as the year that global stock markets had their values cut in half, it was really much, much more. It was a year in which every major asset class – stocks, real estate, commodities, even high-yield bonds – suffered significant double-digit percentage losses, resulting in the destruction of over $30 trillion of paper wealth. To blame this on subprime mortgages alone would be to dismiss an era of leveraging that encompassed derivative structures of all types, embodying a belief that economic growth was always and everywhere a certainty and that asset prices never go down. As 2008 nears its conclusion, we as an investor nation have been forced to face a new reality. Wall Street and Main Street are fearful that a recession may be replaced by a near depression.

The outcome essentially depends on the ability of the Obama administration to rejuvenate capitalism’s “animal spirits” by substituting the benevolent fist of government for the now invisible hand of Adam Smith. Federal spending and guarantees in the trillions of dollars will be required to fill the gap created by the deleveraging of private balance sheets. In turn, lenders and investors alike must begin to assume risk as opposed to stuffing money in modern-day investment mattresses. The process will take time. Twelve months of the Obama Nation will not be sufficient to heal the damage of a half-century’s excessive leverage. The downsizing of private risk positions – replaced by government credit – will also result in reduced profit margins and a slower rate of earnings growth after the bottom is reached.

Investors need to recognize these titanic shifts in market and public policies and be content with single-digit returns in future years. Perhaps the most lucrative pockets of value are in high-quality corporate bonds and preferred stocks of banks and financial institutions that have partnered with the government in programs such as the Troubled Assets Relief Program (TARP). While their profitability may be restricted, their ability to pay interest and preferred dividends should be unhampered. Above all, stick to high-quality companies and asset classes. The road to recovery will be treacherous.